Introduction

Every state likes to claim to be the “most unique state” in the nation when it comes to politics and elections, but Nevada truly has dynamics seen nowhere else.

First, Nevada has one of the lowest rates of higher education attainment in the nation - we are in the midst of a political realignment where college-educated, upper-middle class, suburban voters are shifting to Democrats and voters without college degrees are shifting towards Republicans (or maybe Trumpism?).

Second, as one of the most ethnically and racially diverse states in the nation, Nevada is ground zero for another potential political realignment - the shift of Latino/Hispanic men and Black & African-American men who are becoming more and more comfortable voting for Republicans (or maybe Trumpism?). This trend has an even greater impact here as Nevada’s blue collar/union workers become more diverse.

Third, Nevada is typically one of the fastest growing states in the nation - as well as one of the most transient states in the nation. Not only are people moving into the state at a rapid pace, but also tend to be nomadic and move around within the state. Due to this, voter outreach is both more difficult and more expensive, particularly in Las Vegas where voters tend to be the most unconnected to their neighborhoods and local communities.

Finally, Nevada has had a number of recent changes and updates made to its voting infrastructure - from ballots being mailed to every registered active voter to Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) and the resulting explosion of Non-Partisan registrants. Nevada voters are still adjusting to these voting methodology changes and campaigns are still unpacking data points to fully wrap their arms around how this affects voters behavior.

While Nevada has many other factors that could be taken into account, when looking at the state from the 30,000’ view, these stand out in having the largest, widest, and deepest effects on Nevada’s elections, campaigns, and politics.

Elections Calendar

Nevadans are already voting and ballots will continue to be received, counted, and corrected until November 12th - meaning we may not have a full understanding of the close contests until a week after Election Day. A few of the dates highlighted below have already happened, but they all contain important context to keep in mind as we progress through November.

District Dynamics

Seat Ratings

Historically, looking at a seat’s registration advantage has been the tried and trued method for rating Nevada’s races, but with Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) taking off and Non-Partisans growing from the 3rd largest Party Affiliation in the state in October 2022 to now being Nevada’s single LARGEST Party Affiliation, we will not be able to rely on a district’s registration advantage/disadvantage as trusted indicator. This may very well be the last election cycle where voter registration in a district can help give us a sense of direction and bearings - to that end, the below ratings are the best estimation for what is to come Tuesday, November 5th. 

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Safe Seats

“Safe Seats” have a double digit registration advantage and barring any major acts of god or an asteroid hitting the district, you’re looking at an automatic win regardless if there is a General Election opponent.

In Congress, this would normally translate to 1 Republican (this year is unique)

In the State Senate, this translates to 4 Democrats & 1 Republican (of the 10 seats that are up)

In the Assembly this translates to 15 Democrats & 10 Republicans

Likely Seats

“Likely Seats” are any district that has a high single digit registration advantage (5% and above) where a victory isn’t guaranteed and could shift depending on dynamics like a Midterm wave year, apathetic voter turnout (like with what happened to Democrats in the 2014 General Election), or unconventional circumstances where a candidate has unique major flaws.

In Congress, this translates to 2 Democrats

In the State Senate, this translates to 3 Democrats (of the 10 seats that are up)

In the Assembly this translates to 6 Democrats & 1 Republican

Swing Seats

“Swing Seats” are any districts with a low single digit registration advantage (4.99% and below) and the definition of a wild card - dynamics like candidate quality, financial war chest/spending, and the mood of the national/statewide electorate all come into play. 

In Congress, this translates to 1 Democrat

In the State Senate, this translates to 2 Democrats & 1 Republican (of the 10 seats that are up)

In the Assembly this translates to 7 Democrats & 3 Republicans

Races to Watch

Based on this context, we know that not all contests are going to be close (there can always be surprises). It’s helpful to hone in on a few key seats on the ballot. Campaigns are all about utilizing limited time, energy, and resources in the most strategic way possible, so with that in mind:

1. All four Congressional races are either a Swing Seat, Likely Seat, or a unique contest
2. Four of the State Senate Seats that are up this Election cycle are contests are in the Swing or Likely Seat territory
3. Ten races to watch in the Assembly that either have credible contests for Republicans/Democrats or might show some interesting future data points.

Gold Level subscribers receive access to previous election results broken down by County, Congressional District, State Senate District, & Assembly District

Congressional

District 1 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Dina Titus vs Republican Mark Robertson

Incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Dina Titus is once again facing Republican challenger Mark Robertson in a repeat match up from 2022. While the Congresswoman should be on track to win re-election, the district’s lines are new and this is the first Presidential Election cycle with the new boundaries.

District 2 - Safe Republican

Republican Mark Amodei vs Independent Greg Kidd

Incumbent Republican Mark Amodei is being challenged by Independent Greg Kidd in one of Nevada’s most unique matchups. In fact, no Democrat at all filed to run. While in any normal election cycle Congressman Amodei would be immediately considered a “Safe Seat”, we live in interesting times and Greg Kidd is an interesting candidate. In an election environment like this, having an independently wealthy, self-funding candidate along with no Democrat on the ballot might create a pathway to victory for Mr. Kidd.

District 3 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Susie Lee vs Republican Drew Johnson

Incumbent Democrat Susie Lee is being challenged by Republican Drew Johnson in Nevada’s closest margined Congressional District. Congresswoman Lee has a lot of experience running - and winning - tough races, but with new district lines that encompass some of the fastest growing parts of the Las Vegas metro area combined with 2024 being the first time with the new boundaries in a Presidential Election cycle there could be an unexpected upset.

District 4 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Steven Horsford vs Republican John Lee

Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford is being challenged by Republican John Lee. Nevada’s second largest geographic district contains some of the state’s ruby red rural Counties that always create headaches for Democrats. Congressman Horsford has represented some of these same Counties for a number of years, while John Lee is the former Mayor of North Las Vegas - so we could see an interesting urban vs rural dynamic.

State Senate

District 5 - Swing Republican

Republican Carrie Buck vs Democrat Jennifer Atlas

Incumbent Republican Carrie Buck is being challenged by Democrat Jenn Atlas in the Senate Democratic Caucus’ best pick-up opportunity in Clark County. Senator Buck won her first election in 2020 by ~300 votes, but this will be the first time that SD05 is up under the newly redistricted boundaries. The SD currently has a narrow Republican registration advantage of ~1% and in 2022 several statewide Republican candidates won the seat - but in this political environment, shifting Party alignments/realignments, and the fact that both the Minimum Wage & Equal Rights ballot initiatives passed by double digits in 2022 could help Democrats eek out a win.

District 6 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro vs Republican Jill Douglass

Incumbent Democratic Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro is being challenged by Republican Jill Douglass. The Majority Leader has a history of running and winning in tough seats and tough environments - this, combined with the fact that all statewide Democrats won the SD in 2022 makes this a tough pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.

District 11 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Dallas Harris vs Republican Lori Rogich

Incumbent Democratic Dallas Harris is being challenged by Republican Lori Rogich in possibly the best (but still tough) pick-opportunity for Republicans this year. Post-redistricting, SD11 saw some rearranging of the nested Assembly Districts which shifted State Senator Harris from a “Safe Seat” into a more competitive “Likely Democrat” seat with a ~5% Democratic registration advantage. Both of SD11’s nested Assembly Districts are currently represented by Democrats and in 2022 the bulk of statewide Democratic candidates outperformed SD11’s registration advantage by ~4%.

District 15 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Angie Taylor vs Republican Michael Ginsburg

An open seat that is being vacated by incumbent Republican State Senator Heidi Seevers O’Gara is being fought for by Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor and Republican Michael Ginsburg. Even though SD15 has a slimmer Democratic registration advantage at ~5%, it’s tough to see this as a very competitive SD when former Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak won the seat by a double digit margin in 2022.

Assembly

District 2 - Swing Republican

Republican Heidi Kasama vs Democrat Ron Nelsen

Incumbent Republican Heidi Kasama is being challenged by Democrat Ron Nelsen in the first-of-two Democratic pick-up opportunities. Republican Heidi Kasama won her seat in 2022 by ~10%, but several Democratic statewide candidates won/narrowly lost the seat that same election cycle. Similar to SD05, AD02 has a narrow-ish Republican registration advantage of ~2.5% so it’s the Republican’s race to lose, but when you combine the fact that this AD has the demographics that are shifting the quickest to Democrats (college-educated white suburban voters), the fact that both the Minimum Wage & Equal Rights ballot initiatives passed in 2022, and finally the fact that Nikki Haley won ~38% of 2024’s GOP Presidential Preference Primary vote, could help Democrats thread the needle.

District 4 - Swing Republican

Republican Lisa Cole vs Democrat Ryan Hampton

An open seat that is being vacated by incumbent Republican Republican Richard McArthur is being fought for by Republican Lisa Cole and Democrat Ryan Hampton in the second-of-two Democratic pick-up opportunities. It’s another race for Republicans to lose as the Democrats are slightly underwater by ~2% voter registration advantage-wise. While AD04 is similar to AD02’s dynamics there are important differences such as there are more people of color in AD04, the households are wealthier in AD02, etc. Democrats have gone all in on the seat and are hoping to find a (narrow) pathway to victory here.

District 9 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Steve Yeager vs Republican Erica Neely

Incumbent Democratic Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager is being challenged by Republican Erica Neely. While on paper AD09 is a Swing seat, the political environment is not shaping up to be favorable enough for Republicans to win in a seat like AD09. In 2022, Speaker Steve Yeager earned more votes in the district than former Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak, further underscoring how much of an uphill battle Republicans have in this seat.

District 12 - Likely Democrat

Democrat Max Carter vs Republican Nancy Roecker

Incumbent Democrat Max Carter is being challenged by Republican Nancy Roecker in one of the Assembly’s more interesting contests. In 2022, first time candidate Democrat Max Carter won his race by a narrow 1.9% giving Republicans hope of picking up an unexpected win. But 2024 is not 2022 where there were a confluence of events that compounded why AD12’s race was so much closer, including: an independently wealthy and overfunded Republican opponent and a Midterm election cycle where historically/traditionally the Party that controls the White House typically sees losses up and down the ballot.

District 21 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Elaine Marzola vs Republican April Arndt

Incumbent Democrat Elaine Marzola is being challenged by Republican April Arndt. AD21 is definitely a swing seat with a narrow Democratic registration advantage of ~3%, but it’s been a reliably Democratic seat for nearly a decade. Furthermore, in 2022, no Republican candidate earned more than 48% of the vote in AD21 in their respective contests - which most likely puts this seat out of reach for Republicans this cycle. 

District 25 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Selena La Rue Hatch vs Republican Diana Sande

Incumbent Democrat Selena La Rue Hatch is being challenged by Republican Diana Sande in what many believe to be the Democrats’ supermajority make-or-break seat. While the voter registration advantage sits at a slim ~2%, Democrats up and down the ballot heavily over performed in 2022, with Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch winning by nearly ~8% and with both Democratic former Governor Steve Sisolak & US Senator Catherine Cortez Masto winning with 12.2% & 16.1% respectively.

District 29 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Joe Dalia vs Republican Annette Dawson Owens

An open seat that is being vacated by incumbent Democrat Lesley Cohen is being fought for by Democrat Joe Dalia and Republican Annette Dawson Owens. Historically AD29 has been the swingiest of swing seats, but after nearly a decade of Democratic wins and newly drawn lines, it’s hard to imagine this seat being picked up by the Republicans. In 2022, the Minimum Wage ballot initiative passed by an astounding 21.8% margin along with the Equal Rights ballot initiative passing by an even more impressive 29.3% margin.

District 35 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Sharifa Wahab vs Republican Rebecca Edgeworth

An open seat that is being vacated by incumbent Democrat Michelle Gorelow is being fought for by Democrat Sharifa Wahab and Republican Rebecca Edgeworth. This is considered another make or break seat for Democrats to retain their supermajority and a poachable seat for Republicans as Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow only won the seat in 2022 with a 1.5% margin. That being said, in 2022 every single statewide Democratic candidate won the seat, indicating that whichever Party wins at the top of the ticket will also win down the ballot.

District 37 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Shea Backus vs Republican David Brog 

Incumbent Democrat Shea Backus is being challenged by Republican David Brog in the final make or break seat for Democrats to retain their supermajority. Assemblywoman Shea Backus has run and won tough fights before (winning her first election in 2018 by a mere 135 votes) but this seat also represents the Republicans most favorable pick-up opportunity - in 2022, while every statewide Democrat won in the seat, the margins were much more narrow than in AD25 & AD35.

District 41 - Swing Democrat

Democrat Sandra Jauregui vs Republican Rafael Arroyo

Incumbent Democrat Sandra Jauregui is being challenged by Republican Rafael Arroyo. Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui has run and won in AD41 every election since 2016, winning by ~5% (or more) margin each time. Additionally, the new-ish district lines now make AD41 a majority-minority district, which might present some additional long term challenges for Republicans.

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